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Fidelity Worldwide Investment's Optimism On Rising Global Population
Eliane Chavagnon
31 October 2011
Following the United Nations’ forecast that the planet’s population will total 7 billion as of today, fund manager Fidelity Worldwide Investment has examined how this could stimulate bigger global investment opportunities. A mushrooming world population has a direct effect on consumer product demand, ranging from financial services to cosmetics, but ultimately draining the earth’s supply of finite resources such as food, water and energy, the firm notes. While Fidelity highlights the repercussions of rapid population growth, pointing to the World Bank’s estimation that global demand for food will rise by 50 per cent by 2030, the firm also sees various ways in which the demands of a larger population will be beneficial to investors. The firm emphasises that farmers make heavier use of fertilisers such as phosphate and potash to increase yields. Stocks such as Potash Corp, Uralkali, Industries Qatar and Mosaic drastically outperformed during the last period of food inflation - attracting significant investor attention. Meanwhile, the number of middle-class people is estimated to double, from 430 million in 2000 to 1.2 billion over the next few decades. This is particularly relevant in terms of global expenditure on luxury items, according to Fidelity. “While infrastructure developments can provide excellent investment opportunities, the real long-term growth story that investors should be getting excited about is consumption," said Nick Price, portfolio manager at Fidelity. “Strong and consistent GDP growth in recent years is seeing rising incomes and a developing middle class in many economies. There is considerable scope for consumption growth throughout the emerging markets universe.” For example, emerging markets such as Brazil and Mexico are among the world’s most extensive bottled water markets. As population rises, companies like Danone benefit from increasing consumer demands. The same also applies to soft drinks and beer producers, as firms such as Coca-Cola, Pepsico, Ambev and Grupo Modelo witness significant growth in revenue. In addition, growing female labour participation rates, particularly in East Asia, is a notable trend because women have distinctive spending patterns, shelling out on cosmetics, fragrances and toiletries. And, of course, the more money people earn, the more they can dedicate to household equipment, such as freezers, televisions and computers. Likewise, as pressure to live in a greener world intensifies, the production of more environmentally friendly assets such as electric cars become of equal interest, Fidelity points out. Access to financial services is also increasingly sought after in emerging markets. Russia’s Sberbank and Banco Bradesco in Brazil are taking full advantage of the growing market for basic mortgages and loans, the firm points out. Finally, the internet, at the heart of globalisation, is a fast-budding phenomenon in developing countries. The number of people using the web in China is set to exceed 50 per cent by 2013, a figure which currently stands at 35 per cent.