The removal of US tariffs on Scotch whiskey is very good news after a difficult period for the industry, Samuel Gordon, co-founder and CEO of Gordon PWC, a premium spirit cask investment company, told this news service on Friday.

“The 10 per cent tariff introduced last year by the industry's largest export market weighed heavily on an already challenging backdrop of declining alcohol consumption,” Gordon said.

The US is the largest and most valuable export market for Scotch whiskey by value. Tariffs for exports to the US, introduced under the Trump administration and adding 10 per cent to importers' costs, damaged sales in Scotland's whiskey industry's biggest export market significantly. In 2024, Scotch exports to the US were worth around £971 million , with 132 million bottles exported. By 2025, after the 10 per cent tariff came into effect, exports had fallen to £933 million and 120 million bottles. The May-to-December period showed a sharper decline: 15 per cent fall in volume and 7 per cent fall in value. This suggests that the tariff had a real commercial impact on shipments, margins and confidence. Shipment volumes could improve in the second half of 2026.

“While the deal should support a gradual recovery in trade flows, it’s unlikely to drive an immediate rebound in demand,” Gordon continued. “However, it removes a key headwind at a time when the market is still working through excess inventory following the pandemic and changes in consumption trends.”

“We’re seeing the effects of this downturn reflected in softer pricing in the cask market. That’s not ideal for existing investors, but it creates a more compelling entry point for new capital,” Gordon added. “Whiskey, like most markets, is cyclical. The data suggests we are now closer to the bottom of that cycle than the top, with improving conditions likely to support the next phase of growth.”

Cask whiskey is seen as an alternative asset which can hedge against macroeconomic headwinds and rising inflation. Returns reach between 8 to 12 per cent year-on-year, with the product having a 10 to 18-year plus investment period.

Simon Aron, founder and CEO of Cask Trade, a marketplace for cask whiskey collectors and alternative investors, also hailed the news as a breakthrough. “This is fantastic for the industry. It goes without saying that we are incredibly grateful to King Charles and all the Royal family as well as the Scotch Whisky Association for all their hard work,” Aron told this news service on Friday. “I’m sure this amazing news will be greeted with open arms and a little sigh of relief for what has been a difficult time. Considering the repeated increase in alcohol duty and tax, any reduction is good for the industry. This is a two-way deal and will be good news for all the bourbon drinkers in the UK as well.”

His views were supported on Friday by John Kennedy, managing director at Decant Index, a platform in the alternative collectibles sector, specializing in premium whiskey, fine wine and rare spirits. "This is a genuinely meaningful moment for the Scotch whiskey market. The US isn't just another export destination – it's the price-setting market for premium whiskey globally,” Kennedy said. “Removing a 10 per cent tariff doesn't just improve margins today, it resets the long-term pricing curve for the entire category.”

“For cask investors, this is particularly powerful,” Kennedy continued. “You're not buying today's market – you're buying into where that cask will exit in five, 10, 15 years. A structurally more accessible US market increases demand at the premium end, improves liquidity, and ultimately supports higher valuations over time.”

“A stronger US whiskey market increases bourbon production, which increases the supply of high-quality first-fill casks into Scotland. That improves the economics of maturation as well as the exit environment. It's rare you see both sides of the equation improve at once,” Kennedy added.

Patrick Rosin of Rosin Fine Wines reiterated that the removal of tariffs is definitely positive news for the top end of the Scotch whiskey market, in particular. "It removes a margin squeeze that was forcing difficult choices on prestige producers, restores pricing parity with domestic American alternatives, and should re-energize US importer and collector confidence,” Rosin told this news service. “The biggest beneficiaries will be independent bottlers, craft distilleries, and aged expression releases that had the least room to absorb costs. An example is a saving of £5,000 on a bottle of Macallan Red Collection 78 years old. The immediate question is whether the formal trade implementation matches the scope of Trump's announcement – that clarity in coming days will determine just how significant the uplift really is.”

Although the removal of the tariffs will not solve all Scotch whiskey’s wider structural challenges, like softer discretionary spending and high energy costs, the Scotch Whisky Association has also described the development as "very welcome news for the Scotch whiskey industry" and confirmed that the US remains the industry's largest and most valuable export market.

The development comes after UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed earlier this year that China would cut import tariffs on British whiskey from 10 per cent to 5 per cent. China is Scotch whiskey’s 10th largest market by value, and the tariff reduction will also help Scottish distillers compete more effectively. It also follows the UK-India trade deal which cut Indian import tariffs on Scotch whiskey.