The data, published by Security Benefit, sheds light on what registered investment advisors think about economic prospects and how to position in financial markets.

A poll of 100 RIAs in the US finds that six in 10 expect inflation to be under 3 per cent in the next 12 months, tracking with the latest personal consumption expenditure price index, falling to 2.1 per cent in April.

The findings for the second quarter, from US insurance group Security Benefit, point to a more mixed view about economic prospects, however. Views have been affected by Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement and the subsequent 90-day pause in these tariffs.

The tariff policy remains top of mind for many RIAs, with 47 per cent of advisors thinking that they are the biggest risk to the economy over the next six months with geopolitical tensions (40 per cent) and inflation (34 per cent) not far behind. 

Some 45 per cent of advisors are more positive on the outlook than when Trump entered the White House in January, while 17 per cent haven’t adjusted their views and 38 per cent are more negative. The survey finds that views vary depending on how long an RIA has been in the sector. Advisors with 20 or more years of tenure were more likely to feel positive about the economy, 53 per cent versus 28 per cent for those with three to 19 years in the business.

“Optimism rose in the second quarter, with our Economic Outlook Index increasing to 60,” Mike Reidy, national sales manager, RIA Channel at Security Benefit, said. “That’s up five points from last quarter. However, advisors still see potential risks on the horizon as almost half (45 per cent) believe there is at least a moderate likelihood the economy will be in a recession in the next 12 months.” This a strong increase, up from 29 per cent of RIAs taking such a view in Q1, meaning that some economic anxieties remain.

Diversifying
As clients look to diversify their assets, almost half of advisors (47 per cent) report increasing allocations to international equities, while three in 10 are increasing allocations to US equities. Almost one-third (30 per cent) of advisors are not making tactical changes to their clients’ portfolios, and another 33 per cent have already made changes.

Although half of RIAs (53 per cent) have cited increased interests from clients in downside protection solutions – such as fixed index annuities or other structured products, since the start of 2025 –  only one in four (27 per cent) are increasing allocations toward them in lieu of economic pressures.

“The uptick in RIAs fielding interest from clients in downside protection solutions is a healthy sign,” Reidy said. “If economic pressures deepen and volatility spikes again, building downside protection into any diversification strategy is fundamental to ensuring asset protection in an uncertain market environment.”

The survey was conducted in May by Greenwald Research.