While it made a reference to conflict in Europe as a driver of some visa applications, the firm did not refer to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The report examined trends in the "golden visa" business during 2021.

In 2021, people from the UK, the US and India were keenest to take advantage of citizenship/residency-by-investment programmes, sometimes dubbed “golden visas,” according to a firm specialising in the space. Fears about tax hikes, a desire for more options post-Brexit and political uncertainties helped fuel the rise.

Henley & Partners, one of the largest businesses advising people about such visas, said in its inaugural Global Citizens Report that Indian nationals topped the charts for enquiries received by the firm in 2021, rising by 54 per cent 2020. US citizens were next in line, with the business saying that it received 26 per cent more enquiries in 2021 after a red-hot growth rate of 208 per cent in 2020. Enquiries by UK individuals and South Africans shot up by 110 per cent and 38 per cent respectively in 2021.

The report was conducted before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an event that has prompted countries such as the UK to close HNW investor visa programmes and slap sanctions on oligarchs and those with links to Vladimir Putin’s regime. Russians have accounted for a sizeable chunk of applicants for UK Tier 1 investor visas in recent years, for example. (This news service spoke to the firm about the matter; it may update on how the Ukraine drama is affecting the sector in due course.)

The Henley & Partners report said two “big Cs” have driven investment migration – Covid-19 and climate change. It noted that conflict in Europe has added a third element more recently. 

“It’s no coincidence that each of the W10 [10 wealthiest] countries have legislation in place granting residence rights to foreign investors – and five host formal investment migration programmes. These countries are important investment migration markets in terms of both supply, thanks to their attractive and successful programmes, and demand, due to their significant and growing populations of affluent investors,” Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, said. 

“The rest of the nationalities in our Top 10 for enquiries in 2021 all came from the global south apart from Canada, in ninth spot, which saw remarkable growth of 86 per cent. In 2022, we are seeing very similar trends, with early signs of exceeding last year’s stellar overall growth,” Volek continued.

The market remains controversial. At times, it has been attacked for encouraging flows of illicit funds as well as being largely a toy for rich people to avoid paying their alleged fair share of tax. Defenders say that they give entrepreneurs and business owners security against having their assets confiscated by rapacious governments – as has happened in the past – and that income/wealth generated in their home countries is taxed anyway. The business of advising people on such programmes has become a significant part of the wealth management space in its own right.

Geopolitics
The report said the northern hemisphere has become “increasingly unpredictable” over the past two years, helping feed demand for such programmes.

The UK’s exit from the European Union has fuelled some growth of this market, according to Stuart Wakeling, head of its London office.

“UK nationals still top the charts when it comes to the number of enquiries in Europe, with Henley & Partners seeing a 110 per cent increase on 2020’s figures. The vast majority relate to what options Brits now have in terms of alternative residence or additional citizenship in the wake of the UK’s exit from the EU. The biggest growth in Europe, however, comes from Turkey, with a 148 per cent increase in interest, which is why we opened a new office in Istanbul last year.”

In Dubai, Henley’s office head, Philippe Amarante, said there has been a growth in demand for visas because of the pandemic. 

“This applies both to inbound programmes such as UAE’s golden visa options and outbound in the form of investors securing second or third homes via investment migration-linked real estate. Particular countries of interest in this regard are Greece, Portugal, and Spain. With the outlook for 2022 and related risks and uncertainty on a geopolitical level, the need for additional residence and citizenship options, and the recognition that they are indispensable assets to maintain optionality and access rights, is now widely accepted,” he said. 

Asia and Oceania
In Asia, Nirbhay Handa, group head of business development at the firm, and head of its global South Asia team, said migration is rising in Asia.

“A growing number of ultra-high and high net worth investors focused on futureproofing themselves and their families are increasingly seeking out alternative residence and citizenship options,” he said. The firm logged a 52 per cent increase in client enquiries in 2021 compared with 2020 across South Asia.

However, the story in East Asia is radically different, because the pandemic and hardline measures to contain it have reduced enquiries.

Tough measures in Australia and New Zealand have affected the “Oceania” market.  

“From the mass exodus of expatriates to the severely restricted mobility of locals, Henley & Partners saw an extraordinary increase in enquiries as a result,” Scott Moore, head of the Indonesia and Philippines offices, said.