Banking Crisis

Global Markets Hit As Greek Voters Say "No" To Bailout

Tom Burroughes Group Editor July 6, 2015

Global Markets Hit As Greek Voters Say

Greek voters have overwhelmingly rejected the terms of a debt bailout, bringing closer the chances of exit from the eurozone.

The eurozone was pushed into deeper uncertainty yesterday after debt-laden Greece voted by a clear margin to reject terms of a bailout for the country, a move that threatens to see the country leave the European single currency and hurt global markets even though investors have braced for such a possible outcome for weeks, if not months. Asian indices fell earlier today - the Japanese Nikkei-225 fell 2.4 per cent; the Stoxx 50 Index of leading European shares was down 0.6 per cent late afternoon today; most other indices, such as France's CAC 40 and the German DAX 50, were in the red today. 

As almost half of the votes were counted, Reuters reported yesterday evening that official figures showed 61 per cent of Greeks have voted to reject a bailout offer. The size of the majority surprised those who thought an outcome would be close.

The political and economic turmoil around Greece and its huge debt has increased significantly in recent months and weeks. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing administration has denounced the cost of receiving aid under a EU bailout package as “blackmail”. On the other hand, eurozone countries, especially Germany, have lost patience with Greece and its alleged refusal to deal with economic and financial reality.

The impasse over the bailout could see Greece being the first country to leave the single currency since it was formed 15 years ago – a devastating blow to an economic project championed by countries such as Germany and France. It will further drive debate over whether Greece should have been allowed to join the eurozone in the first place and whether countries with different economic structures are able to cope with a one-size-fits-all interest rate of the eurozone. A Greek exit could also strengthen the hands of UK politicians arguing for a renegotiation of UK membership of the EU.

One particular worry about Greece’s predicament is that the country’s banks are on course to run out of money within days; it is feared that without drastic action, the country’s economy could be plunged into chaos.

“We expect the central bank to continue providing liquidity to Greece’s financial sector, although the small chance of the European Central Bank increasing the cap on the emergency liquidity assistance this week has disappeared with the referendum result,” Diego Iscaro, senior economist, IHS Global Insight, said in a note about the referendum result.

“This [result] significantly raises the probability of banks running out of cash over the coming days. We estimate it is very likely banks will not reopen on 7 July as currently expected. Moreover, the limit on bank withdrawals, currently at €60, may also need to be reduced,” Iscaro continued.

“Negotiations will resume over the coming days but the probability of a deal is distant. Tsipras’ argument is that he can now go back to the lenders in a stronger position. However, we believe it is unlikely the creditors’ proposals will be significantly relaxed as a result of the `no’ vote. It will now be impossible for the Syriza-led government to accept the deal currently on the table, which means that the risk of a total collapse in the negotiations has increased significantly,” he said.

Iscaro added that the “only hope” of a deal may rest on the IMF convincing eurozone governments to include a clause promising debt relief in the future, conditional to Greece meeting certain targets. This will be extremely difficult but lenders may come to the conclusion that it is the only way to avoid Greece leaving the eurozone.

“We believe that the ECB will be able to mitigate financial contagion from Greece if necessary. Over our six-month tactical investment horizon, we expect the risk premium on peripheral bonds to narrow and the eurozone equity rally to resume,” Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer, UBS Wealth Management, said of the possible effects of the Greek position.

 

 

 

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