Investment Strategies
Counting The Impact Of "Quants" - Interview With Gregory Zuckerman
This publication spoke to the author of a book about a person who opened up investment to the often misunderstood world of quantitative approaches - aka "quants".
Family office consultant and regular Family Wealth Report commentator Joe Reilly recently caught up with Gregory Zuckerman to talk about his book The Man Who Solved The Market: How Jim Simons Launched The Quant Revolution.
Joe Reilly: Ok, so we knew Simons did well, but not
that well. Some 66 per cent a year for thirty years would make
him one of the greatest wealth creators of all time. How is he
not a household name like Rockefeller or Gates?
Gregory Zuckerman: Jim Simons and his team are the greatest money
makers in the history of modern finance (notice that I call them
money makers, like you did “wealth creators”. One can debate
whether they are traders or investors). But they are also the
most secretive. They've had no need to boast or share details
about their returns. So it's been hard for journalists and others
to write about them. For decades they only invested their own
money, not the money of outsiders. Even more important, they
haven't wanted a hint of their approach to leak out, given how
competitive the business is. And frankly, they share very
different personalities from Buffett and the others. They don't
watch CNBC or Fox Business. So they have zero
interest in being featured by them. Perhaps most important,
they're quants. It's a very challenging area for journalists to
write about in a compelling way for the average reader. Trust me
that was the challenge I faced and I almost gave up several times
along the way.
I can’t imagine this was an easy book to write? How
did you overcome the resistance of people to speak?
Everyone I spoke with had a different motivation for speaking.
But I think at the end of the day, they realize they were
involved in something remarkable, an accomplishment never before
seen in the world of finance, and one that even they wanted to
share. The most unlikely people - mathematicians and scientists
who mostly don't care for the world of business and investing --
are the ones who solved the market. They knew they did something
special and I think part of them wanted to speak about it.
There is a lively debate among folks I know in the
business right now over what the killer edge was for Simons.
I have heard many theories over the years, some bizarre,
yet your book lays out a case that it was mostly lots of trial
and error. What do you think his real edge has
been?
My book lays out over a dozen edges, maybe 20 if you add them all
up. Renaissance hires much better talent than anyone else. They
motivate employees in better ways. They manage employees in
different ways and create innovative ways for them to work
together. They use leverage in a creative way. They hide their
signals so their trading can't be detected. They are humble about
their models. They do mid-frequency trading and, as such, have
less competition than one might expect. There's more in the
book.
One of the reasons why Buffett is so well loved is that
there are practical lessons you can take away from his investment
style. Are there similar lessons the average investor can learn
from Simons?
Sure - first and foremost, don't try to compete with Simons and
his colleagues. Meaning if they are focused on two-day,
short-term patterns you need to hold investments much longer.
And don't fall for investment stories. Simons and his team
don't even know what stock symbols stand for. Most important, one
needs to have a system or a set of rules, like they do, rather
than relying on intuition and judgement. That just doesn't work
anymore.
How would you distinguish RenTech from some of the other
well known quant players like Two Sigma, AQR and
Bridgewater?
They're very unique. They focus on short-term patterns yet
they're not high-frequency. Two, Sigma and PDT do a lot of that
but most others don't. Bridgewater isn't even a quant firm. I
have no idea why people think it is, but most do. AQR is a
different kind of firm, with an orientation in factor and other
investing. Renaissance is different in so many other ways too,
from its embrace of non-intuitive signals to how it avoids silos
(eg firms like Two Sigma). It's all one model, which is rare in
the quant world.
You spent two years doing a deep dive into this firm and
have been writing about the financial world for over twenty years
now. How has the hedge fund world changed? Are quant
funds going to dominate the space in the future?
It's just harder than ever to get an edge or an information
advantage. Regulators and other factors have leveled the playing
field. It's a different world since I started. It's why I wanted
to write this book - Renaissance is the last firm I could
identify with a consistent ability to beat the market with a high
Sharpe ratio. I'm not sure quants are going to dominate, but they
do have an edge.
Is Simon’s philanthropy very data driven or is he more of
an old fashioned cause philanthropist?
It's definitely data-driven. He's a big believer in the approach,
though perhaps not as much of a stickler as he is in investing.